Hi Guys, in the face of the existential challenge the twin mafia bosses of Putin and Trump are presenting to the world, I wanted to share a few ideas for what Europe and its allies can do to stand up for Ukraine and for the deeply held values it so valiantly embodies. I would love the following to be a catalyst for practical solutions and for the realisation that we genuinely are way more capable than we believe ourselves to be.
Give the $280bn of frozen Russian funds sitting in Belgium to Ukraine. Belgium, it is time to stand up!
Immediate cessation of the entire shadow fleet passing through the Baltic Sea. Could be subtle (inspections), could be overt (confiscations), or, if we deem it preferable, impose $15 per barrel tariffs on all product and send the money to Ukraine. Something poetic about this given that fuckface loves tariffs so much!
We need to urgently formulate a Joint European Defence Initiative (JEDI) and invite Canada, Turkey, Japan, Aus and NZ to participate. No need for Hungary or Slovakia, and time to ask Spain and Serbia on which side they stand. Our collective GDP is $35trn – Russia’s is $2trn.
We need to massively increase the urgency and funding for the IRIS programme (Euro Starlink) and accelerate deployment to within 18 months. This for both security and to shaft that magalomaniac Nazi Musk.
We need to impose a temporary ban on X, Facebook, Truth Social and any other polarisating platforms whilst we engage in a multi-year policy process about how we prevent social media from subverting and polluting public discourse. Only once the new rules are in place can these platforms be permitted to operate on the continent.
Germany needs to immediately provide Ukraine with all the Taurus missiles that have expired certifications. Let the Ukrainians figure out how best to use/refurb them.
Germany is the one European country with industrial might, and it is currently facing an existential crisis of lack of demand. It’s time to retool for war, both to stand up for our freedom, and to save the German economy from plunging into depression.
We need to cancel all contracts for F35s that we can, and channel those orders towards purchases of Saab’s Gripens and we need our Swedish friends to step up production big time.
Also worth accelerating next gen Fighter Jet development in UK, France and Germany. And retool in anticipation of significant production.
We need Ukraine and Poland to provide industrial quantities of drone technology. Poland is also set to become an arms behemoth which is no bad thing.
We also need to start investing in electronic warfare upgrades pronto.
We need to scour the earth for weapons systems that are not dependent on US tech support. South Korea, we need you, and the fact that N Korea is supporting Russia should be all the invitation you need….
Norway’s upscaling of NASAMS is very encouraging and Denmark’s Nammo facility coming online is very welcome, as is Rheinmetal. We need much more of this to ensure self sufficiency.
We need to urgently gather together some of our brightest minds to set up Euro alternatives to things like Palantir, so we have no tech dependencies on US companies. They have become an overnight security risk.
We need to increase defence spending significantly. The first job of many government is security. This can be paid for by an immediate customs union between EU and the UK – significant boost to UK and EU budgets that can fund this, alongside the influx of the $280bn donation to Ukraine, some of which they will no doubt channel towards our industries. I also sense Canada would love to be a part of that too. If necessary, we may need to relax fiscal rules too.
If the US threatens to stop supplying Ukraine with intelligence, then we need to consider pulling out of Five Eyes and forming a new alliance. The partnership is compromised by Tulsi Gabbard’s links to Russia anyway. This could include the ejection of the US from Menwith Hill in Yorkshire and Pine Gap from the Aussie outback. It at least a temporary suspension of visas for the workers to allow for a dignified diplomatic thaw that sees Ukraine receive continued support.
We also need to further resource our cyberwarfare capabilities and start an agency dedicated to winning the battle for the information space – this is Russia’s only superpower. We need to neutralise that (also helpful against China and Iran).
We need to form a new basket of currencies as a potential substitute for USD reserves. A combination of GBP, EUR, Norwegian Krona and Swiss Franc should provide a brilliant blend. Maybe also increase our collective gold reserves. Then let the US know that if they leave us hanging on anything serious, we will immediately switch into this and sell down our USD reserves.
Quietly tell our pension funds to begin selling down Tesla etc. Elon has lots of loans against his stock, and there will be tough banking covenants against them. If the price tanks, he’s in trouble. Also, Tesla cars are about to become the most uncool car in Automotive history, so selling now is actually the smart thing to do.
We need to look at becoming self sufficient in Semiconductors, building on the back of ASML’s amazing position in the market, and Ukraine’s contested ownership of a shitload of neon. This will take the best part of a decade to accomplish, but we need to start now. By the time we are done, there’s a decent chance that neon is back in Ukrainian hands again.
We likely need to identify an AI resource that we can develop ourselves and which we can rely upon to keep us up to date, capable and competitive. We created DeepMind and unfortunately it got bought by Google. I’m sure we can do it again. Maybe open sourcing it is the way forward?
We need to look to up our game on Air Defence. At the moment it is dominated by the US, Israel, and China, none of whom we can rely upon. We do have some capabilities in this space, but we need to urgently build upon that with a Manhattan Project style focus.
We may also need to reconsider AUKUS and switch out the US for the French. Go FRAUK!!
We have the engineers to help provide refining capacity for all the heavy sour oil from Alberta – let’s be an alternative to US refineries. Whilst I’m desperate for us to go net zero, we need a bridge between here and there, and the alternative is much dirtier coal. I’m sure Canada would be happy to oblige.
Speaking of which, we may wish to create incentives for more engineering, scientific and vocational pathways in the further education sector – a lot of our engineering expertise is older, and we need to make sure we have new blood coming through.
If we’re doing a big strategic rethink, then tax incentives for large families would also be worth consideration to stave off some of our demographic challenges. I dislike Orban intensely – he’s as corrupt as they come – but their recent announcement on this appears to have merit.
We need to leverage the $1.8trn Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund – they have already offered war bonds and this can also be harnessed to fund some of the critical industries mentioned herein.
We need to hash out a nuclear umbrella for Europe provided by UK and France. European partners will obviously need to contribute to upgrading and expanding our capabilities. Sweden, Finland, Poland and Romania may need to go nuclear. They could all be ready to deploy this year. (I hate that I am suggesting this but I don’t see a way around it).
I also hate the fact that Ukraine probably needs to lower the draft threshold from 25 to 23. That will give them enough men to hold the line for at least 18 months.
I would also like to see deployments of UK and French troops in Western Ukraine to help train these soldiers and guard against incursions from Transnistria and Belarus so that Ukraine can focus its resources on the frontline.
Ukraine could also target some of Russia’s biggest wells in Siberia and blow them up so they can’t be brought back online for 30 years. That could easily reduce their GDP by 12-15% per annum, making it near impossible to prosecute the war.
We also need to consider strengthening alliances and trade with key partners in Africa. Not in a neocolonial way, but in a spirit of true partnership. So many synergies are possible. Morocco, Nigeria and Kenya should all be easyish and super valuable. Ethiopia is also a sleeping giant. We need to give South Africa an off-ramp between Putin and Trump. We may need to consider holding our nose and helping the DRC kick out M23 in return for favourable trade.
I would also get the EU, via Meloni, to go and broker a strong relationship with Argentina – they need investment, but have a trash reputation in the financial markets. We can cover that for favourable trade rights to their amazing agriculture and shale reserves. They are the only country in the world with shale reserves similar to America. Most of the rest are a waste of time.
New Zealand is currently struggling with recession because of China’s slowdown. Let’s help replace that by stepping in and increasing trade with them. They have world class, low cost agriculture due to their volcanic soils. Let’s switch from US suppliers to NZ, Aus and Canadian suppliers and see how the influential farm lobby in the US takes that!
There are no doubt many other things we can do.
And let us remember that Russia will this year run out of tanks, artillery, armoured vehicles (already using golf buggies and donkeys!). Their special forces are almost down to zero. Their inflation rate is about 35% and climbing. Interest rates are at 21%. Mortgage rates are at 29% and their housing market is collapsing. Their demographics are horrific. They have no engineers left because technical education stopped in 1986 and they have all retired or died from alcoholism. Russian banks are on the brink of collapse due to the Govt forcing them to give out about $600bn of loans to support the war effort. Their sovereign wealth fund has hardly any liquid assets left and will run out of cash this year. Their business sector is seeing a tidal waves of bankruptcies.
Putin needs peace more than Ukraine does. It will crumble like the Soviet Union did if we just hold the line. And then when they stop paying their soldiers, the frontline crumbles and the war ends with justice served.
If we let Trump and Putin railroad us on this, the Baltics and Romania are next, and Europe will not know peace for a long, long time.
It’s time we step into our power. It’s also a huge opportunity to revitalise European industry, but more importantly, to remove ourselves from being under the heel of our US and Russian counterparts.
And if anyone doubts our strengths, check out this link:
This doesn’t include Canada, or Turkey! It also doesn’t include reservists. Finland has 900,000 for example.
